"They are not silly in America. When they see the failures of St Marys etc they will come in with cautious optimism."
I disagree strongly. Were you not around during the tech bubble? American markets can be the silliest of all where money outweighs commonsense. HOWEVER in this case both the sensible and the silly will come on board. This can only have one effect on the share price.
TDA agree with your post on forward earnings. People bet on forward earnings in advance. Those who don't always wonder why they missed the boat.
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