"Say the heads go from .020 to .030, a 50% rise. I'm prepared to say that the UNTOAs' willl also go up by that cent to .020, that's 100%"
It depends how fast the SP rises (assuming it does rise)...
If the SP goes from 2 to 3 cents by December, then I agree, the UNTOAs will probably also go up a cent. But if it takes until July next year to get to 3 cents, then does the market think this will continue to 5 by the following March? Probably not, so you're not going to get the same rise with the options.
I suppose I'm being cautious because I had UNTO's when the SP was charging through the 3's heading for 4 cents. It looked like a given that it would get to 6 cents in the following 14 months. It seemed a certainty, in fact we hit an intraday high of 5.1 cents at one point.. However, turned out it wasn't to be.
Yes, yes, the company is in a totally different position today compared to early 2023, so I conceed that it feels like 3 cents is not far away.
However, (as I mentioned before) if we don't get some more news, or sudden market interest in the next 3 weeks, then only a small percentage of the UNTAQ's will be exercised. If that's the case, we need a major revenue turnaround in the next 6 months to avoid a CR in 12 months time, because that could spell the end of the UNTOA's. It's not a given, just a harder road to travel.
Yes, I'm being quite negative here, but having lost 2M UNTO's, I've been stung. People just need to be aware of the risks of options. If everything goes to plan, you're right gassed, the UNTOA's are a great investment at these levels. Just that there is an "if" there, so I'm not putting the house on it. If I was to advise anyone, I would say stick to the heads, at least until we see how the UNTAQ's go between now and the end of the month.
IMO
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