That may well be the case, but if the loss of CoverMore isn't that big, then there must be other reasons behind annual receipts having dropped from $6.5m in FY2017 to $3.5m in FY2018, and this to me creates uncertainty and would probably explain why the MC is so low.
I'd also be careful taking the companies (or any companies releases) word for word. Yes revenue was up 47% Q on Q, but you should realise that the first quarter of the Calendar year is always the worst for travel spending, and this 47% growth is probably flat or possibly even negative when seasonality is taken into account. As stated in my other reply to you FRX (in a similar market) more than tripled revenues (+206%) for the same period.
I probably don't know UNL as intimately as you do, I do realise they had a shift in the way they sold their SIMs and are transitioning to new products, so naturally there will be a period of flux. This occured with FRX's revenue after they launched their X microchip. (They essentially had to relaunch 9 months later, as they got their pricing model wrong).
A great portion of FRX's revenue used to come from wholesale reselling of SIMs, and this revenue is quite similar in nature to the bulk of UNL's revenue. FRX wholesale revenue appears to have largely disappeared, however it isn't clear form the recent 4c whether this is for certain until they (hopefully) release a revenue breakdown later this month.
Having seen FRX go through 18 months of transition, I'd say you might have to be patient as UNL goes through a similar process.
With the above said, I'm not bagging UNL, just adding my thoughts as to why I think the MC seems so ridiculously low.
Ultimately it would be great if the two companies could merge in all scrip offer, so that no-one misses out on the upside.
What would you say for a 2:1 offer? The UNL board would have to take a serious pay cut and they could look after the English speaking markets, and the FRX team could focus on Asia.
The combined entity would benefit from:
$2m cash at bank
Immediate profitability and significant market re-rate
Larger scale buying for improved margins
UNL customers to get FRX's microchip for recurring revenue and deeper customer engagement, upcoming inflight WiFi
FRX customers gets Insurtech, SOS, WiFi
reduced app development costs
Greatly reduced corporate overheads & synergies
Greater liquidity on the ASX fo all holders.
Chance of happenning... 0%
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- Ann: UNL Termination of Exclusive Contract with Covermore
That may well be the case, but if the loss of CoverMore isn't...
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