Interesting to reflect on valuation relative to Renison production rates.
Renison - ~10kt per annum (~3.3% global supply) + does not include a smelter
Pitinga - Piapora - ~11kt per annum (similar % global supply) - the plant is 1,600tph (i think) - unsure where they smelt
So call it same production - so comparable price of 100% Renison A$520M on this production metric.
On the financials front, from what I could understand Taboca is the stand alone entity that owns Pitinga - Pirapora and they report through in the financials for Mincor as dividends... not sure? Anyway below is segment revenue and the P&L statement for Taboca, huge variability in the financials - i'll just compare 2023/24 averages. 2023/24 average US$53M / A$82M gross profit and US$26M / A$40 NPAT (highly variable not sure why). This compares to MLX (50% share) Renison of A$48M gross profit and A$14M NPAT (note this includes loss on financial asset - the CYM notes by memory)... So MLX slightly more profitable at the gross level.
So based on these high level financials the implied valuation of 100% of Renison at 1.15x would be , i.e. US$391 / A$600M, so the MLX 50% share on an implied basis would be A$300M... The positive is that Renison is in a tier 1 location, it is clear Pitinga - Pirapora have had its issues... Also this is all earnings based and takes no account to the EV, obviously MLX sitting on a horde of cash.
The potential of acquiring a larger slither of Renison (through a cheap forced seller) is rather appealing.
Happy to be corrected in anyway, this was a quick and dirty
MLX cashflow statement - obviously 50% ownership of Renison.
(20min delay)