Now that I've had some time to think this one through.1. I've...

Now that I've had some time to think this one through.

1. I've read Raper's analysis. He starts with the latest set of accounts (CY23) and makes some judgements for CY24 H1 cash flow and other adjustments. His work is logical and it makes sense. My issue is the implicit assumption: we can trust there hasn't been anything dodgy in CY24 H1. I've heard enough horror stories of Chinese listed companies being dodgy with company funds or accounts. Further, the absence of CY24 H1 accounts does not fill me with confidence.

2. Companies listed in Asia - in this case, HK but Japan has plenty of examples - can be or appear quite cheap. It's just what it is. I understand it is easy to apply MLX's implies implied valuation for Renison (share price less cash and investments) to approximate Greentech's interest. But the same asset can and should trade at different prices to account for differences in governance, jurisdiction and broader market multiples.

3. The offer reads like cash. Greentech looks like a fairly illiquid stock, which became extremely illiquid since it was suspended. MLX are providing what looks like a simple cash offer. It's an out - even if it was trading.

I get why everyone thinks the buyer should or will need to pay more. (That so many here assume MLX will pay more makes me think we may have Greentech plants here. *Grabs some tin to start a hat*) I get the offer looks like a low ball offer. That was my initial feeling. But all we really know is they hold 41% of Renison. Who knows what skeletons might be in the closet - the known litigation aside. So given the unknown unknowns, it is not ridiculous.