Ann: Update - Dividend/Distribution - CRN, page-12

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24/03/22

14:52

Post #: 60399775
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Originally posted by Birchcorp: ↑

From the yearly presentation;

Significant improvement in Met coal realizations in FY21; Coronado well positioned to capitalize on higher price Met coal markets and exposure to Asia
 Australian Met coal products are sold on an FOB basis with the majority (~80%) linked to index pricing on a lag 3-month basis
 U.S. Met coal products are sold primarily on an FOR basis with ~55% priced on a forward negotiation basis using a combination of the prevailing spot
price and forward curves
 Approx. one-third of FY22 U.S. sales fixed price of US$187/t (FOR), covering approx. 90% of U.S. segment operating costs
 FY22 group product mix is forecast to be broadly consistent with FY21

With regard to what someone is willing to pay and your view on SP? This could potentially become one of those industries that people place their money for the yield. With inflation, supply restraint, and lack of funding in the coal space, conflicting with no real solution for an alternative energy source, and a growing world population, and development. Coupled with post Covid requirements for growth in GDP's and pent up demand. Coal Supply looks to be going through a long term supply shortage.

In terms of yield. What retail will see in the coming /weeks/months/years, is the high return on investment, and whilst the broader market looks volatile and overpriced, this is one space that is both undervalued (in relative terms) and also providing a yield that is unattainable elsewhere.

If we consider indexing/coal prices-even if based over 12 months, this means elevated returns into the future given the unlikely fall back below $200/tonne. I see this as a 20% yield no matter how we value or what figures people work off. The next dividend will take us to over 40c for the year.

As you noted; hard to value, but as I know, fund managers, industry super funds, and larger corporates are puppets, that follow the masses, to ensure their long lunches on Friday go well... The masses will often get it wrong, so I am not inspired nor guided by Australian super's direction.

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Topped up a few more today, what am i not seeing with coal stocks lol, NHC and CRN are my only holds but so wish loaded up more a few months back.

CRN Price at posting: $1.97 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Update - Dividend/Distribution - CRN, page-12

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Ann: Update - Dividend/Distribution - CRN, page-12

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