The work you have done is fantastic, and by sharing you've...

The work you have done is fantastic, and by sharing you've benefitted others and no doubt helped firm on your view (through various disagreements and discussion) - win win.

I agree that while there is a current windfall in price, to value appropriately we should be looking at what we believe the sustainable 3-5yr price average may be. Personally I believe US$225/t is a reasonable medium term outlook price. This wouldn't account for the dividend windfall that CRN will pay over the next 12-18mnths, but IMO that's a trading decision not an investing decision.

On @Birchcorp the fundies follow the masses, 100%. I think a key differentiation with CRN to other coal plays, is that it is predominately a metallurgical coal business. There are no other large pure metallurgical coal miners on the ASX, and the hugely profitable other bowen basin mines are hidden in the massive Glencore and BHP businesses (so there isn't really visibility on the current cash generation) - so IMO CRN is lumped in with thermal coal miners. I've written about this before - absolutely stupid that CRN is traded based on thermal coal price (have a look at charts - CRN correlates with WHC, NHC etc.)... IF, and it is a big IF, the fundies wake up to the fact that metallurgical coal is not thermal coal, and if everyone realises that metallurgical coal will underpin any energy transition (regardless of whether you agree with any energy transition) than I believe the current significant risk discount placed on CRN could be removed, CRN becomes investable to other fundies, everyone wants to get in on the 20% dividend and boom we double to $4 share price, 10% trailing yield.

Sure we are dependent on price, but CRN has no debt, and if it doesn't throw around cash for acquisitions at the top of the cycle it'll be minting money for 2yrs - we could well get more than $1/sh in distributions in the next 2 years from now....