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09/01/25

18:38

Post #: 77338744
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Originally posted by AmWatchingYou: ↑

My perspective is long term fundamental value not short term momentum.

Healthscope comprises around half of HCW's assets. So even (say) a 20% reduction in rent to Healthscope, is around a 10% reduction across the portfolio. The share price has way over discounted this.

Say a 10% reduction in FFO translates into a 10% reduction in the dividend, then the dividend at current prices is still around 7.9%.

And the cap rate implied by the share price is around 7% which makes little sense to me as barriers to entry are so high, sector WALEs are long, occupancies are high, and incentives are low. This isn't the office sector.

The Healthcsope hospitals will be occupied, and rent will be paid. The Govt cant afford for these hospitals not to operate. The only question is what is the right value and capital structure for a hospital operator. That's short term digestion issue for HCW, but not a long term problem.

The landlord needs to get an adequate rent return on cost, and with replacement costs just going up and up, I doubt there is any material downside risk to rents over the medium to longer term. If there is a risk then hospitals won't be built - and the government won't allow the industry to be unsustainable.

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wait did you not see below screenshot? try reading it now ... what does it says? "The Government Refuses Bailout" .... so after reading this you will learn that there is no point saying "The Govt cant afford for these hospitals not to operate.".

Now remaining part of your comment already answered previously in this thread so go through it and learn "https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-annual-report-2024.8227869/"

HCW Price at posting: 94.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last 76.5¢		Change -0.005(0.65%)		Mkt cap ! $423.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
76.5¢	76.5¢	75.0¢	$61.91K	81.35K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	20547	76.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
76.5¢	7804	6

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	26878	0.760
8	19869	0.755
8	34030	0.750
6	23506	0.745
10	92311	0.740

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.765	5782	6
0.770	61005	10
0.775	50272	11
0.780	53138	6
0.785	10506	4

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