As a principle buybacks work when the company's return on capital or Internal rate of return exceed their (weighted average) cost of funds. A lot of Aust mid-cap mining companies in the same position use 8% or inflation plus 5% (5% real) to evaluate projects cash flow potential and in turn Net Present Value. That would apply to those projects you mention. it would be higher for First Tin (which is why they agreed for MLX to buy in). that rate of return also seemed reasonable for a return on funds from a dividend including franking from an average Asx industrial.
I don't think management will push the button on any of those projects unless they have > 15 % IRR after tax.
Now that become easier to achieve with gearing. I actually think MLX is one of the few that is achieving anything near the 8% IRR over the medium term for a mining stock. I am happy with the buyback. i don't ant to pay the tax above company rates (inclusive of credit for prepaid tax or losses) letting it compound.
I think management keeping it's powder dry is good. I've done my best over decades to beat what the current management is doing and haven't been able to consistently. but that's just me. other people may be fantastic investors and trades but I think the reason is against them for speculating in mining stocks not least because as insider have much better access to information and survival bias.
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