MYX mayne pharma group limited

Interesting to have a crack at an Investor who at least reports...

  1. 203 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 109
    Interesting to have a crack at an Investor who at least reports more balanced. Let's have a break down at the actuals then...

    Firstly - what the company has said - 1H23

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5629/5629592-a9a3d3dce15e8799ef4e694a8e3a1b72.jpg

    2H23

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5629/5629593-baa1bc97669857333ff5c5d10d4db2a1.jpg
    Cycles:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5629/5629598-09ffad1d34d0874e604aa86529727b07.jpg
    Financials:

    Nextstellis S+M v Rev
    1H22 $21.7m Rev $3.1m
    2H22 $26.6m Rev $4.7m
    1H23 $35.7m Rev $10.3m ($7.1m us @ .6892)
    2H23 $45.6m (*) Rev $10.5m ($7m us @ .6640)

    Last two years - Expenses$119.7m (ignoring the additional $9.9m 2H23) - Revenue $28.6m

    If we ignore the extra S+M expenses and Rev from TxMD portfolio we've basically lost an additional $50m on Nextstellis in FY23. Now we accept that if we are really talking a 2H23 50% growth... And we can see the growth in cycles; BUT where is the revenue growth?

    Nexstellis dispensed 102k cycles in 1H23 for $10.3m revenue. ($100.98 cycle)
    Nextstellis dispensed 193k cycles in 2H23 for $10.5m revenue. ($54.40 cycle)

    Commentary says growth through more effective... blah blah. Everything else says more free/sample cycles which need to be converted into paid cycles and therefore revenue growth. Familiar bell; we've been here before and it didn't happen.

    Investors (are usually???) not dumb enough to miss these signals. You can dress them up all you want - but this is a heap of the reason you are seeing pressure on the Share Price.






 
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