It's fair to have a contrary view because you've outlined your reasons.
"The market will place a disproportionate weight to income generated by Daybue rather than the development of 2591"
This is probably true. The investors in the US don't seem to place the same importance or expectations on Daybue for Acadia despite it being far more important to them than it is to us. We operate on a shoestring budget compared to them. The FX windfall means that we could hit the low end of the guidance but the money we get in AUD is as if we actually hit the mid-point or higher end of guidance. Does the market care about that? Apparently not.
You will note that ACAD has traded flat to slightly up over the last 6 months. A disappointing Q3 doesn't seem to hold true (at least for Acadia). The large drop in March is due to the Nuplazid failed Phase 3 and stopping all future development for that compound. In that same period, we had three fantastic read outs.
Despite that Acadia has increased their relative valuation compared to NEU despite the exact same Daybue earnings events occuring over the year. I imagine the difference would be substantially larger if ACAD didn't have legal trouble and a Failed Phase 3 result in 2024.
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