NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED (ASX:NEU) - Ann: Update - Notification of buy-back - NEU, 78487743, page-14 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by baldwidx: ↑

Agree!

On your point about being very well rewarded, I think you are spot on.

I was curious about Danyal's recent valuation post and asked Gemini, Grok and ChatGPT to review and pick holes in it. They did and it was really interesting with most of the feedback relating to inaccurate penetration rates and drug pricing. I thought the feedback about penetration was accurate when compared with KJT's excellent analysis. I found the drug pricing justification poor and none of them could seem to come to a price north of $150k on their own, without me forcing them to consider larger pricing and also sharing the pricing of Daybue. Patient numbers for all 3 models came back largely the same without prompting and in line with Neuren's estimates.

Gemini was the most accurate and considered. I asked them all the same thing but will share my experience with Gemini.

I asked it to provide an acquisition valuation based on an average peak sales multiple (which it determined to be 3x and 5x), using 25% and 50% penetration rates and $150k and $300k drug pricing. I also asked it to include 3 more hypothetical conditions that mirror Pitt Hopkins patient numbers as it is the smallest indication we have at present and I wanted to err on the conservative side when looking at possible numbers for the remaining undisclosed indications. Rightly or wrongly, I am assuming 4 all up (including HIE).

It did and the acquisition ranged from $30b USD at the low inputs, to $70b USD at the higher inputs. Both other AI's came to similar conclusions, although Grok's was always more conservative and by some margin on the upper end of the range.

Interestingly, Gemini suggested that a DCF model would be more appropriate than a peak sales multiple calculation, so I asked it to run one and that was fascinating as well. It basically said that its worth more than a simple multiple of peak sales. The lower inputs spat out around $40b USD (with a 12% discount) and the higher inputs came to $81b USD. When I asked it for a valuation right now, as we stand, it came to $8.5b USD and when I asked it what it would be worth post successful P3 in PMS, it says that it would be worth in excess of $65b USD.

For the record, I asked Grok and ChatGPT to do the same and they both came within the ballpark of Gemini.

Not for a second saying that this is what we will get but it was a really interesting exercise, playing with the dials and adjusting the assumptions. What was also fascinating was the difference that HIE makes to the whole valuation as they were significantly lower when I pulled it out. For some reason, it had an exponential as opposed to linear multiplier effect in all 3 models.

One thing is for certain - there is absolutely no way on earth we are only worth $50!!

Expand

Yes, good and timely post Baldwidx.

It does give confirmation of valuations made here previously. KJTs valuations have been very well presented over the years.

The US$40 to US$80 billion is likely, and much much more. But that will be the aquires benefit after they develop the pipeline.

I suspect a premium will be paid on US$8.5 Billion for the depth of pipeline an aquirer will get. Depends on competitive bidders.

But the market is ignoring this. They cant even give us A$1.8 Bill market cap !!!

Fortunately we have a board that is well aware of the value to be delivered to the aquirer. And it isnt for sale unless they put forward a respectful bid.

GLTAH

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	231	$12.26

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231

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$12.32	1979	2

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1	231	12.260
1	3000	12.250
2	3451	12.200
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231

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1579

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3885

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
12.320	1979	2
12.330	1885	2
12.340	1579	1
12.360	2001	1
12.370	1579	1

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12.320

1979

12.330

1885

12.340

1579

12.360

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1579

(20min delay)
Last $12.26		Change -0.280(2.23%)		Mkt cap ! $1.525B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$12.45	$12.45	$11.88	$6.952M	570.0K

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