My logic (or maybe lack of logic) is that a complete surprise has a massive swing a true surprise, as if the case loses now there is a level of this being factored in. So the downside is theoretically less then the upside, eg if thrown up should get a massive upswing however if a negative still a down swing but some is priced in. So numerically X% of people factored in Y loss so a percentage of down priced in, as upside not really priced in. But you are right this is may be more hope then true analysis so critism is probably fair, as I have done no real anaylsis or data on this in tech stocks. It would be interesting to do this, I have read similair research on delayed FDA rulings that are expected to be negative in the US from seeking Alpha premium about 10 years agoand it has worked very well for me (apart from in 2022 where it did not).
NXL Price at posting:
87.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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