"Without a doubt the past performance of this stock and management makes potential investors extra cautious."
Correct, and I've been saying this for years. The past performance of BC and his Board for most of the last couple of years has not been good."I don't think it has been missed, just not believed. A lot of people got burnt on last years run up last xmas based on Bretts statement about offtakes etc."
Correct again, they have to stop crying wolf. For the last two years around the time of the 4th quarter and before the AGM, BC has made grand announcements about what he's gunna do only to:
1) not deliver; and
2) go quiet and leave investors in the dark for months afterwards.
These two things have of course meant the market is now wary. Investors are probably thinking is he doing it yet again - getting the market excited before meeting face-to-face with long suffering investors, then about to let everyone down again in the upcoming year? There's still a whiff in the air that will only be eradicated when BC consistently does what he says he'll do - particularly regarding the game changing announcements.
Having said this I, like many investors here, am now more optimistic than I've ever been. For the first time since I invested in this company I can see we may well be on the cusp of great things.
1) The NT is fully supportive of AEV and classified phosphate as a critical mineral + possible NAIF funding in the pipeline.
2) An agreement to develop the Wonarah phosphate project was signed with the Arruwurra members.
3) A MMP for DSO purposes has been submitted and approved.
4) The DSO feasibility study stated the enterprise will run for 23 months and proved it's financially viable.
5) A binding agreement has been signed with Aleees which means LFP aspirations are well and truly the main objective.
6) Aleees are looking like a great partner - todays announcement shows they want to help and not make things more difficult for AEV.
7) This IS the time for AEV to succeed - phosphate is in high demand for both food and batteries and this demand is expected to grow in the future.
8) China holding onto its phosphate and not exporting for the foreseeable future meaning other countries need to get it elsewhere. Enter AEV, we have a world-class resource suitable for both battery material and farming industries.
9) The price of phosphate rock is strong and should remain strong - could even climb much higher considering points 7 and 8.
10) funding options are being sort.
Re: number 10, the sooner funding is cemented the better - I'm sure CR (which I hope doesn't happen) and dilution is at the forefront of potential investors minds and is probably another factor contributing to selling.
In recent months, and for the first time since I've been invested in AEV, Brett Clark has started acting like the CEO I always wanted him to be and I've congratulated him on the recent progress he's made. BUT, I would be lying if I didn't say I still have niggling concerns based entirely around BC's history. I think we can all agree it would take a very "special" type of CEO to f*** this up considering points 1-10 are strongly in AEV's favour.
Re: CEO's, I've been an avant reader of the SYA threads this month. Boy-o-boy! Their CEO is hated (in fact that might be an understatement on my part). A classic case of feathering his own nest with huge remuneration and freebies while the SP has nose dived. There'll be pitchforks and torches at that AGM! Wouldn't surprise me if he resigns before then - he knows his head is in the guillotine. What's interesting is there's a concerted effort by investors to vote him and his Board out at the AGM and if that doesn't succeed they're talking of convening a EGM. I think OZ investors are starting to get pretty sick and tired of seeing their investments being decimated and not reflecting the true value of the companies they're invested in for a number of reasons:
1) Useless ASX regulators that turn a blind eye to BEOT shenanigans designed to rob retail investors of their shares;
2) Rampant manipulation, capping, etc;
3) Robot trading;
4) Shorting - (I read recently South Korea has temporarily band shorting because, amongst other things, it ruins retail investors confidence in the market and is a major disincentive to invest); and
5) CEO's who don't do what they say they'll do, leave companies wasted, then walk away with a huge pay out.
What's happening over at SYA could be seen more and more in the future and should serve as a warning to all CEO's running ASX listed companies.
IF/WHEN BC brings on the game changing news that turns AEV into a miner and producer then I think this company is likely to have a phenomenal future.
I'm going to give BC the benefit of the doubt this time because so much significant ground work has been achieved in recent months - something that hasn't occurred before. However, if we still haven't got a binding DSO deal by February at the very latest, then I'll be worried because that will mean to me that history is possibly repeating.
IMO this very real concern is a key reason why the market is still sell sell selling when I would have thought buyers would be gobbling up shares at these crazy low prices considering the enormous upside that SHOULD be ahead of us in a very short time ... if BC is to be believed.
Also, the recent suspension didn't install confidence either and harked back to the bad old days - that s*** wants to be avoided at all costs in future so AEV presents as a well run, on-the-ball, serious and determined company.
Yes AEV also has cash concerns ATM and that would be sticking in peoples minds, but I think that's manageable. What was it, 12M Capex to get the DSO mining up and running? Burnvoir are specialists in this area and I'm sure options like govt. subsidies, cornerstone investors, pre-payment for our product, etc have been investigated to the max.
I think Brett Clark and his Board have done some terrific work of late - bring home the bacon Brett and get AEV generating $$$$. For God's sake don't drop the ball when you're so close to the goal posts (Overall, I have a feeling he won't this time and I hope that feelings right).
GLTAH.
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