I agree that the litigation funder would not have taken on the case unless they see a strong chance of success. However I also think IDA management are going to be pragmatic, and I think highly unlikely they will recover their full claim. Bear in mind that the claim is likely to include everything and the kitchen sink, plus interest. Also the Tanzanian Govt do have defences; I don't know the detail except that it relates to tax issues, which has affected other foreign companies operating itneh resource space in Tanzania. To me if they recovered say $20M that would be a stellar result.
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