I think the main problem is with SA assets, seen in how their SP reacted after December report and also from both responses.
Something seems really really very very bad with the SA assets?
- If BHP has to buy whole, the offer will become way too expensive because the initial offer was already factoring out the SA assets (loss, risk, issue).
- If Anglo should demerge SA, I think the SA shareholder which likely has main influence in the AA or legal jurisdiction won't give permission.
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if you think it's that easy (to demerge the South African assets)" <- might show AA themselves can't easily do the demerge. LOL
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Some investors have said they would have preferred an option whereby BHP offered to buy the whole company and spin off the assets it doesn't want afterwards." <- easy to say after running away LOL
JPM as BHP main shareholder had expressed multiple objections of the already big dilution.
Blackrock as AA shareholder had expressed continuing talk -> want to sell/exit?
Therefore it seems the SA assets is like a parasite to AA and will become a poison to BHP. Unfortunately they hold legal jurisdiction and just win the election again (ADP). Unless something can change this local jurisdiction/shareholder, perhaps let that be the activists job to solve? I mean, if they want the deal, they should do the heavy lifting, not the BHP shareholders.
https://au.investing.com/news/economy-news/bhp-and-anglo-dig-in-even-as-takeover-talks-deadline-nears-sources-say-3276164
(20min delay)