I picked that period as it was an extreme case when the base...

I picked that period as it was an extreme case when the base dividends fell significantly below the current 29c.

HLI payout is dependent having sufficient regulatory capital based upon expected payouts from claims.
Provisions are made on expected future payouts not actual payouts & smooth out the distributions (to a certain extent) except in extreme cases like COVID.

Why am I posting this?
Because HLI distributions are highly dependent upon factors beyond their control (other than getting their provisioning estimates correct!)
As such they are a proxy for the housing market & the economy as a whole, particularly unemployment.
Australia is approaching, or at the low point in the economy with peak interest rates & highest unemployment.

So if Australia isn't facing massive foreclosures on mortgages, which no one is predicting, then HLI should be facing more favourable conditions ahead.

Assuming the CBA business isn't lost.