PEN (ASX) Ann: Update on Central Processing Plant Commissioning

Originally posted by Lord Bell: ↑

Just to update...for those who believe fundamental value will eventually be reflected in price.
Of course I accept that the Macro picture such as Government policies may act positively or negatively in the short term..but I believe Value and Price driven by profits will always be the final outcome.
Present book Value is $1.77....Which means if all assets were liquidated it would result in Approximately $1.77 per share ...shares are usually valued at 2x to 3x Book Value ie approx. $3.50 to approx.$5.50 this is an adjustment that tries to incorporate growth and as a methodology has had some historical success.
Most Analysts following Pen have their projected price expectations in this range with most analyst around the Four Dollar Level..The Range exists based on earnings growth expectations and related to the present and future expected contract prices for Uranium.

Present "Intrinsic Value" ...is $15.55....this is based on projected "Discounted Cash Flow" based on the projected earnings of Pen over the years ahead as projected by future sales by Pen assessed by management on their solid agreed contracted sales ahead with a relatively small amount left for the Spot Market ...and the price is the value "value of an asset" required to produce that earnings stream.

Now despite all the negatives expounded by OldAle and others they have produced NO VALIDATION in any form to justify their negative approach......Gut feel seems to be their compass.

Again many investors are really only gamblers and they simply buy and sell on price movement with no connection to Book Value or Intrinsic Value...the price runs up and greed makes them buy more the price falls and they panic and sell..it's a method and to some has been successful now and again depending if the momentum trend lasts.However such a method runs contrary to what buyers usually do at a sale ..buying suits, cars etc...all purchased where possible at Lower prices.

I use a fundamental approach with a 3 years to 5 years window and this has sufficed successfully for me over the last 60 years ....Why three to five years ...because it takes this time period before projected earnings can be correctly assessed and value and price to reach some realistic stable outcome..
Again for the benefit of clarity I am not a trader..but will accumulate where major price anomalies make such action worth while ...and I will sell if Management proves to be less than truthful or sales outcomes substantially fail to meet management projections ..Management must be honest and be seen to be honest and by Stock Exchanges rules all developments that take place that may be beneficial or detrimental to price must be released timely to inform investors.
Of course based on my evaluation and my asset allocation I will have a defined investment ...We all should set a maximum investment level to a share or asset class to distribute and spread market risk.

I wish all investors success no matter what system they use ...even if it's tea leaves...or throwing a dart blind folded at a dart board.or using Tarot cards ..or just gut feel .All to their own and their own methods.
All the Best to All

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I asked one of my Australian based grandsons who knows more about finance and stocks than I do to summarise your post above for me @Lord Bell as it is a bit long on the wind and obviously important to you. He tells me that you believe that the value of a company, driven by profits, will eventually be reflected in its share price and that you use a fundamental approach with a 3-5 year window, considering book value, intrinsic value, and projected earnings. He further said that you rely on the importance of honest management and timely disclosure of information to investors.He felt that this is a reasonable approach in a perfect world but that it can be very adversely affected by any of your assumptions being wrong over such a long time period, 3 years being long in the environment we find ourselves in.