lets talk about industrial value. IMO
There is a $1 BILLION DOLLAR plant at Renard.
If you were wanting a secure supply from Canada, per view pre select those who we are talking to.
Now consider that if a green field peer might circa cost say also $1B plant to build, maybe more, maybe less, and arduous permitting.
Compare that, while we have a total of Acquisition / Road / Quarry / Refurbishments of say $320m, perhaps some offset for road grants etc, call it $300m. We are uniquely getting a brazil type capex, in a canada location.
So compare typical peer V Adina - Renard.= if say 1B v 300m in capex.
Then whatever that peer is, but in this example, if a peer to peer saving on the expenses book of say 700m.
That is industrial value, a measure of expense which the unique pairing of Adina- Renard offers whoever wants a piece of it over an alternative in the same jurisdiction.
We could offer say 50% of it, for a chunk of cash that would be better equity than a strategic might get buying into a peer that would still cost the full $1B eg.
quoting another poster, "PMT secured Volkswagen as a strategic partner paying C$69M for a 9.9% stake in the company"
Pro rata that to 50%, and there is $348m
Even if we said, lets shoot for half of that valuation, then there is $174m for 50% etc.
But PMT and Volvo, still have to finance the entire capex, and lakes risk, and dams. I'm not sure what their capex is.
While we only need to fund the $300m, and if we JV 50-50, then we can fund only 150m, and the strategic 150m.
But can we largely pay for our $150m split, from the buy in stake offered by the strategic for the industrial value in place ?
Or some measure of the inherent value of Renard, to what degree is up for negotiation.
Where else could a strategic get ownership of such a unique opportunity, in a tier 1 location.
And consider the value of the hub, that it can potentially expand from 2.2mt to 2X that on the current available foot print.
IMO Industry will value the pairing of Renard- Adina, with some consideration to the alternatives.
Anyway you cut it, we are offering a Brazil type capex, in a Canada location, and are betting that a strategic would like a piece of it. What % split ? what cash ? is pure speculation.
Now to the risk of permitting. Has Volvo done its 69m in PMT cold ? will they get permitting ?
Whereas our lower risk profile from the in place Renard, and Quarry at Adina, might be more attractive.
Yes, they could just decide to buy the whole cow as well.
Or for that matter, any circling opportunistic predator might say, i'd like a 300m capex build and a 78mt MRE for a counter cyclical buyout over more expensive options when the seasons warm up.
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