Ann: Update on EMPG IPO plans involving Zameen, page-2

"Frontier Digital Ventures Ltd (“FDV” or the “Company”) welcomes recent news from Zameen’s parent company, Emerging Markets Property Group (“EMPG”), in relation to the successful completion of a US$200m funding round, and their plans to prepare for an IPO in the near future."

This is welcome news. Shame it appears on a market down day.

EMPG will obviously be bullish about an IPO revaluation for their asset portfolio. This should translate to a revaluation of Zameen which FDV will benefit from and we may yet see a SP rise in the coming six months or so.

I am still trying to calculate a value for Zameen vs the rest of FDV portfolio. Here are the last seven quarters with Zameen and Latam split out.



I had to guesstimate reconciling EBITDA numbers for Apr 2021 and Jul 2021 because they were not provided.

I also extrapolated the full year results due in Jan 2023 based on the LOWEST positive quarterly revenue growth percentages achieved recently in each region. The EBITDA margins are extrapolated to grow by the AVERAGE achieved in each region over the last four quarters.

These numbers are my WORST case scenario. If FDV does NOT beat these numbers, then I will be concerned.

Full year results are calculated here, including extrapolated 2023 results using the same WORST case growth metrics as for 2022.



I still believe Shaun will deliver on his FDV vision, but FDV must beat these forecasts by a wide margin if the SP is ever going to rise again. For example, Zameen EBITDA margin should be closer to 30% to match REA group profit margins for a listed company. Revenue growth must be a lot faster given their market leadership and to justify the risk of operating in emerging markets.

Remain a HOLD until the full year results are released.