Ann: Update on Global Heart Failure Program-MSB.AX, page-141

Its a good question Aatisket. And to answer it ... I think you turn to the conference call which I have just had the chance to listen to.

Whats more important? Market transperancy or the ethical conduct of clinical trials.

On the one hand we have the agreement in black and white. On the other hand we have SI’s assurances that neither Teva or MSB have had access to any trial results.

So its a matter a “trust” as the politicians are fond of saying.

I am 100% certain that neither Teva or MSB have had access to patient level efficacy data as SI reported today.

And that non-answer means you have an answer to your question – 100%.

I am kicking myself for not researching this trial a month or two ago. It was the best short on the ASX, and it would have been well worth learning how to short stocks on. That agreement was the missing piece in the puzzle.

Shorters are sophisticated investors. And everyone should pay attention to what they are getting up to. They have also been trend followers on MSB. And the fact that shorts were increasing again even following the nose dive to 1.14 was the clue. I just didn’t join the dots.

But around this mark I am positive. Some sort of Bergen / Lind type funding arrangement will be put in place. This will drip shares out to the market to fund the remainder of this trial. A heck of a lot of shares need to fed into the market and this volume can only be achieved through pumps and dumps on “news”.

I think MSB are confident this can be achieved because they have chosen this rather than the other option which was on the table right now which was simply be stop the trial now. At 230 patients it is a very strong P2b study. Wait 12 months for the data to mature and if positive results are found for the clinical outcomes it would be easy to partner into P3. And so that risk reward for continuing must be in MSBs favour.

Unfortunately this does require believing that MSB will follow through. But note here the promise is not produce revenue, sign partners up for 10s of millions of dollars. All that stuff is way too hard. But a Bergen pumping and dumping an ASX biotech through the Nasdaq? No problem.

A rather cynical approach to the noble cause of medical discoveries ? Yep 100%.