Markowitz portfolio theory is your friend in that case (because you can diversify away the systemic risk, and then combine the same with other asset classes and a combination of a risk free asset or leverage etc), but sounds like you have some magical sauce that deviates from simply picking an optimal risk/reward combination of stocks and you do welcome some (probably biased) guess work in your process.
Nargh; you flatter me.
I'm not nearly smart enough for all that high-brow stuff.
What I do is inordinately simpler than that:
I simply try to identify companies that have some kind of unique and differentiated service or product offering and are managed by people who will steward the capital of the business in a smart and prudent manner.
And I buy those when I assess them to be reasonably attractively valued.
Nothing magically saucy about that.
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