Consider the company changing event directly in our faces: Don't underestimate the potential rerate in CDY's sp from its participation in the Chinese pharmacies expo in a little over 3 weeks time. Contracts are likely to result by this month end with potential substantial Evolis sales in FY 2016/17 and beyond through 10,000s of Chinese pharmacies.
A conservative estimate of year China sales, if even 4% of pharmacies represented at the Expo (i.e. 9,600 out of 240,000) sign up, is $A98,000,000 pa.. That assumes 20 Evolis customers per pharmacy for an annual spend of $A510 each customer (this may be underestimated). If CDY achieves a net profit % of 22% after all selling and admin & overhead expenses, the estimated net profit from China alone is $21,000,000. Ignoring the benefit of past tax losses, the China Connection estimated after-tax profit of $A16,000,000 should support a sp of $A0.33 ( PE of 20). If the assumed number of customers per Chinese pharmacy is doubled to 40, the after-tax profit of $A32,000,000 points to a sp of $A0.66. That's a possible 22 bagger from China alone.
http://chpai.com.au/
Australia-China Complementary Health Products EXPO 2016
26-29 June 2016 Pullman Melbourne Albert Park
A Chinese health industry delegation of over 800 people representing:
- 3000 members of pharmacy retail chains
- over 240,000 pharmacy retail outlets
- up to 80 per cent of medicine sales in China
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The largest health industry purchasing group in China is coming to Australia tochoose products, form partnerships and sign contracts during this expo. |
http://chpai.com.au/
(20min delay)