I agree largely with your calculations. But, what would the tax...

I agree largely with your calculations. But, what would the tax and fees actually be? If the ATO class ruling confirms that it is a 100% return of capital then there will be no tax. But past experience has told me that it won't be ruled as a 100% return of capital, it will probably be ruled as somewhere between 60% to 80% return of capital, the rest will be taxed.

The announcement also says up to 85% to be returned to shareholders and they have indicated they need $12.7m for Sauvolles lithium exploration. Personally, I don't put much faith in this management and if they fail to get the permit (if it was simple to get the permit then they would have it by now) then they will probably only return 65% (my estimate) so that they can continue as an exploration company and be funded for the next few years.

Any royalty payment(s) would be at least 3 years away following completion of any deal so I guess the market has considered that too far away to be meaningful to today's SP.

I think this is why the market is hesitant and currently pricing MTC where it is.

Barring any additional offers, acquiring the permit would be the next SP catalyst as a greater proportion of that $USD20m should flow through to shareholders.