TVN 4.00% 4.8¢ tivan limited

Ann: Update on Proposed Grant of Rights, page-123

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    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2272/2272499-5b8a436a1d2540cc4c8de5ee44841dcd.jpg
    Above the six month daily trading chart.

    While the last few days peaked interest and we saw the SP rise from mid 5s to mid 8s, breaking 9 cents for a moment, all the SP did was reclaim the the pre COVID 19 SP.

    For the immediately period before COVID 19 trading resistance point was solidly 9 cents. The SP traded under 10 cents for weeks.

    When 9 cents was momentarily hit this week, resistance was not broken but seemed to be reestablished. Trading yesterday with a stall and .3 retrace was a classic indication that the momentum had run out of steam at least for the time being.

    Im no technical trader or chartist but thats what i see.

    What will excite me is 9 cents resistance breaking and the market building into the SP the cumulative effect of recent announcements. They include, FEED well advanced together with the tendering process, final off takes to be confirmed unconditional over the next two months, EIS suppliment underway (should see finalised soon), bullish directors and executives testing the holders view on incentives raising the threshold for final incentive paiment to a MC of $500 mill, indications that construction finance spearheaded by the KfW mandate is within reach and realistic (only 6 months to run on mandate timtable and positive comments from KfW exec).

    Historically trading through to c April 2018 saw a resistance at about 18 cents. During this time we had been waiting for traditional holders consent believing that that would be the start of the end so to speak.

    What happened after was the shift in focus to the Darwin Refinery, EIS draft, FEED and non refinery infrastructure considerations, KfW reviewing the whole DFS with SMS and a new refined DFS resulting, all along with significant changes or adaptions to TIVAN and the titanium pigment process route.

    For the period of the "refinery focus" 2018 and 2019 the SP drifted south the market and holders becoming disillusioned unable to see the end. This is despite significant progress being made. None the kess18 cent resistance ultimately became 9 cents. I add the "mishandling "of the VINSOM share placement H2 2018 didnt help causing a massive dump in SP. The later announced iron orr off take agreement and potential equity contribution from VINSOM was never aluded to by the BoD and the placement stank of a friendly buy in to counter mounting holder concerns. I accept now there was more to the placement than first thought.

    As we started to see evidence of progress late 2019 (filing of EIS, updates on FEED and revised DFS) it looked like a solid H1 2020 was realistic. Then along came COVID 19. Bang SP dumps from 9 cents to the 4s.

    Well the market has now recovered from the "COVID affair" recoverjng the dump last week. Three of my holding recovered in the same way TNG did and my overall portfolio sit about the same as it did over xmas. The globe isnt in the clear yet with the spectar of a second outbreak looming and the USA still out of control, lead by a retard, and South Americas lacking the required infrastructure to raign in the virus, but there is positivity in the air that in a modified way the global economy will function.

    Anyway the SP needs to smash 9 cents and get back to the 18s to recognise that "refinery groundwork" is coming to and end.

    Then it needs to smash the 18 cents resistance recognising that the final hurdle of finance is an odds on bet.

    It is encumbent on our BoD to get this message to the market and focus on a significant re rate before those final equity contrubutions are agreed.

 
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