EYE 8.00% 23.0¢ nova eye medical limited

In my view given the (very) small MC of the company, retail...

  1. 252 Posts.
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    In my view given the (very) small MC of the company, retail investor interest should in theory be more than enough to take the share price up, case in point WBT (different industry/business but no recurring revenues yet with a massive MC given large TAM, you get my point). So in a sense I am thankful Analyst007 have been singing on the rooftops for this name for quite some time.That said, this management is the type that 1) doesn't do much 'effective' marketing (e.g. going on Au s-B iz for instance, I mean honestly no one knows this company...), and 2) errs on the side of caution when putting out announcements, and is probably of the view that numbers will ultimately speak for itself, which whilst true it means that I'm not quite sure we'll see any short term re-rating unless either:

    1) LCDs are not implemented due to new data being reviewed / CMS comes over the top and overrides - in which case market can actually use the +74% US sales growth and model that out to see profitability and put this on a PE ratio for 2025. Personally that was my initial thesis.

    I don't like P/S. You could have argued we're cheap on relative basis back at 30c, but reality is whoever we are comping to can de-rate to no end so it may well be that we're simply fairly valued and the comp that you're using is simply overpriced for a sustained period.

    2) A meaningful 2RT deal struck, with favourable deal structure - as I have already discussed;

    3) incremental institutional interest - which I can only assume would only occur under scenario (1) or (4 - below), as can't imagine any takeover offers until there is (favourable) regulatory clarity.

    Otherwise (4) we'll probably have to wait till half year results in late Feb, by which point let's say the LCDs are implemented (certainty / downside baked in), PLUS management comes out saying you know what, our 'initiatives' (whatever they are) has meant that January trading suggests that our mitigation measures have worked and sales growth still remains strong, maybe this is in the other two MACs due to sales focus pivot or something. Again that means market can use the latest sales growth numbers and forecast the company moving towards real profitability in the near term thus driving a rerate.

    More than happy to hear other's thoughts, but I think what I've outlined above is probably somewhat closer to realistic without sugar coating it. Personally I'd agree that we are as close to the bottom as we can ever get, so be it if the technical guru says it's 10c or whatever, close enough so yeah not selling as I also still believe in the company's products. Theoretically if you want to make your money back this might be the time to buy more because one could argue it's a matter of time before these LCDs are overturned if you take a multi year view?
    Last edited by DAngel35: 17/11/23
 
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