This is normal government bureaucratic process delay. It does...

This is normal government bureaucratic process delay. It does not help that Miracle Iron made another IO acquisition prior to this. This would weigh highly and demand further scrutiny from FIRB.

We have only reason to believe that this will be approved based on recent political relations.

- Excellent relations between Chalmers and his counterpart in his visit to China a few weeks ago.

- China proposed lifting lobster import ban by new year 2025 is a HUGE sign of a positive outcome for this transaction.
I would expect the Robe transaction to be approved soon after lifting of ban is made official by China.
It is the final import ban remaining from the 2021 trade skirmish.

- Lobsters to be back on the Chinese plate for the Chinese New Year on 29 Jan 2025.
2025 happens to be the year of the dragon, so why not put a lobster on the plate? It does look very much like a dragon.
Lobster import will help Chinas stalling economy due to the real estate sector.

- Lobster trade was worth $700M in 2019, will likely be double that now with inflation.
Why not approve your counterparts $102M acquisition if they beget upon you $1B+ in trade.

- US election will be done by years end giving further clarity on the political front to the direction in which we will go.
Trump talks the talk, but I doubt he will risk a trade war with China via tariffs.

Chinese trade restrictions on Australian lobsters to be lifted before Chinese New Year - ABC News

Why should Chalmers then reject this deal if he wants continued positive trade relations with China?
It is highly likely that the man he met with was the one who approved this deal from Chinas end.

8-month delay is extensive even for FIRB, but I have confidence in the system overall and would not expect the approval to take longer than a year, which would take it to Feb 2025. Delay is very much political in nature IMO. With the political reason evident and weakening, FIRB approval is a near certainty.

RIO is probably a small reason for the delay.

Doing business in Australia: All about Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) (youtube.com)

See 15:00 to 20:00 in the above video for insight into FIRB timeline on approvals, with a key point being that extensive delay without response or objection implies an acceptance of the proposal from FIRB. Lack on rejection, objection or request for binding conditions to the deal on the back of an extensive immaterial delay is a sign to me that there is no reason for a rejection or for restrictive conditions.

MC is now at half the cash value of the transaction. I am happy to hoover up anything up to 27c if I have the funds.