Yeah, hard to tell. Once a stock gets to takeover like this most of the volume is from the Arbitrage Hedge Funds, so they are set-up to react negatively to most announcements to protect their downside of the deal falls through.
They might be working 10 deals or so globally at the same time so it's mostly computer driven. They lost a bucket-load in Australia a few years back when the BHP-RIO deal fell over ;-)
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