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4.9¢ tiger resources limited

Some people invest because they want exposure to copper. Usually...

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Nikec

2,468 Posts.

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19/07/17

12:16

Post #: 25954299
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Originally posted by MagicSeven ↑

I just wonder how many uninterested "investors" are assembled here. Some of you do really don't know how the "aisc" for tgs is working.. So why you are investing in a company when you are careless informed and than also don't know how their basics ("aisc", etc.) are working?

So to be nice to those uninterested or unprepared "investors" I will explain it again:

TGS's "AISC" is NOT including:

- Overhead admin costs (~3mn/yr)
- depreciation & amortisation (~17mn/yr)
(this position is an adding non-cash-cost while capex is already in the aisc. So tgs have both costs. They have the capex (incl. in aisc) and they have the "depr. and amort. costs" as a separate cost. Just look on h1 report 2016. But on other normal working mine-companies we have just "capex" (incl. in aisc) which also replaces "depr. & amort.". So why tgs do that? I don't know.)
- interests and other financial costs (int. ~17mn/yr and fin. ~3mn/yr)
- tax

And as of this basics we can calculate how the last quarter (q1.17) has worked out
(excl. interests because they are capitalized and that will also be the case for the 2nd quarter 2017):

I have calculated the costs on the basis of 4'055 tonnes of produced copper (q1.17) and also included the cash-drain of 4.4mn (q1.17). So we had a sales of 2.67$ and an aisc (as above explained) of 2.65$ (incl. "capex" but not "d&a"). Now add a quarter of "overhead" and "other fin. costs" and than you got an "EBITDA".

But with TGS we have some more complications with an "honest" calculation. Because with the above explained EBITDA-calculation the cashdrain of -4.4mn (q1.17) couldn't be explained at all. To get a cashdrain of -4.4mn as a result for q1.17 there are more "not visible" cash-costs of about 0.37$/lb! Here it would be nice if tgs could also explain and show where they have spent that money!! A cashlow statement would help here!!

SO MY QUESTION IS, WHERE THE INVISIBLE CASH IS GOING TO??? WE HAVE AN AISC AND THE ABOVE ADDING COSTS BUT IN THE END WE HAVE MORE "INVISIBLE CASH-COSTS" OF ~0.37$/LB WHICH ARE NOT EXPLAINED!!! MAYBE DOWN PAYMENTS TO THE DRC-BANK OR AND/OR JUST CHANGES ON AR/AP??? SO FOR THE ENDING OF THE 2ND QUARTER '17 WE NEED ALSO A HALF YEAR REPORT 2017 OR WE (THE INVESTORS) AREN'T ABLE TO FIGURE OUT HOW THAT BIG CASH-DRAIN CAN BE EXPLAINED!

Break-even on "cashflow" lvl (to avoid a cashdrain!):

And now you can decide by yourself what kind of an aisc is mandatory to be able to pay also the "invisible costs", interests and to make some downpayments as a going concern! In my opinion with the same conditions as of q1.17 we should have a maximum aisc of > 1$/lb (yeah really unrealistic!!!)!

But if we make progress on the production lvl and should reach a 30kt production per annum we should have a maximum aisc of <1.75$/lb to be on a safe cash-path (if the cp is still >2.67/lb) to meet all obligations (incl. every cost and to make down payments of 20mn/yr, excl. (non-cash) d&a!)

Break-even on "net profit" lvl (EBT/NPBT):

EBT-break-even aisc should be max <1.55$/lb (30kt production and if the cp is still >2.67$/lb) to meet all obligations (incl. every & invisible cost, d&a and to make normal down payments of 20mn/yr!)!

Well my calculation is really complicated because tiger has a complicated cost matrix. But that is a calculation based on the facts and the current conditions (cp) we have till today (no "dreams"/no "thinkings"/no "wishes"!). So you can trust on my numbers because I have took a lot of time to do it accurately enough! But never forget to DYOR!

So I have done my part. Let's see what we get here in 2 weeks..

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Some people invest because they want exposure to copper.

Usually copper price up/ TGS up, and vise versa.

TGS Price at posting: 4.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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