Yeah, your interpretation is pretty accurate.However, for me, it’s not about who’s “right” or “wrong.” It’s more about understanding the sentiment toward the news.
For example, if the price goes up in the following weeks, it might not necessarily mean the company performed well — it could simply be due to broader market movement or sector momentum. Even so, the stock could still underperform its peers. So does that mean retail investors were “right” just because they bought near the bottom and the price moved slightly up?My answer is - no.
I don’t trade based solely on this information,
but I do use it as an indicator of the sentiment among different groups of investors.
Sometimes, prices drop on mixed news, and professional investors use it as an opportunity to top up. But that’s not what I see here. Over just two days following the news release, retail investors bought as much as they did throughout March and April combined.That suggests professional investors used the news as a trigger to offload shares - a pretty significant unloading into retail.
Here’s the CommSec accumulation/distribution chart for the past year.You can clearly see the pivot — retail investors were selling before, and now they’re buying, which implies that professionals are unloading.
Here’s another example — ALL, which also released news on May 14.The price dipped but recovered by the end of the day. CommSec clients were also buying, but relative to previous activity, the buying was much smaller.To me, that indicates the news wasn’t perceived as particularly negative — the sentiment seemed more balanced.
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