Its got me a bit puzzled too SW... I watched it on the day of the ann and TLT moved not a great deal - and IFT actually went down.
TLT had already had a "T/O" premium jump when IFT announced they were reviewing their holding from 4 ---> 6, but as you say - if they can get the 3b for the portfolio... it still has a way to go to get the SP to the expected MC premium price.... as I said - I am not sure that it is worth it at those prices (for the buyer) - it is quite the premium.
2GW in the development pipeline mind you - and the level of advancement here should not be ignored either - but its one thing to have in development, another thing altogether to reach FD & FC. 1Gw Liverpool development has been in planning for 5 years now and keeps getting revised / paused due to technology improvements (improved turbine capacity = more spacing required = less turbines = revised planning applications)
Have to admit when IFN had their T/O offer in... with a pre T/O Covid starting price of $0.40... it jumped to $0.80 on offer before being sold @ $0.92 and at the time I felt fair value was around $1.2 - $1.50 per share. So yes, this could go higher... especially if there are up to four interested parties... but I keep coming back to the price per Mw in operation.
On a cost per Mw - IFT sold for ~1m per Mw capacity... TLT is already priced at ~2.6m per Mw... this also shows how screwed over IFT shareholders were by their board & management
IFT Price at posting:
$6.92 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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