The U3O8 production for the past two quarters has been as follows.
Q1 Sept 2024 639,679lb Q2 Dec 2024 638,409lb, which included a two-week development stoppage in Nov to increase production rate.
PDN needed to achieve 861,000lb in each of the final two quarters, to reach the bottom end of the prior guidance for 3.0 - 3.6M lb FY2025. PDN withdrew this production guidance for FY2025 in the announcement 26/3/2025 following the rain event.
IMHO, they would not have withdrawn the guidance if Q3 was trending above 800,000 on the logic that a 920,000 Q4 would be within capability and would have achieved the guidance. So, I estimate this Q3 result will be between 700,000 and 750,000lb.
Anything lower would be a poor result and would suggest that Dec 24 308,604lb was a flash in the pan, high grading event and that there has been little improvement following the November development.
Anything above 750,000lb would leave me wondering why they didn't point out the continued improvement and revise the guidance lower, instead of withdrawing guidance and citing the weather event, stockpile issues, mine issues and longer-term effects, as they have done.
Remember, that the nameplate capacity is 6M lb pa, 1,500,000 per qtr, 500,000lb per month, so PDN need to find a lot of improvement going forward.
They really need to provide some good news on the dewatering and mining commencement.
Husab and Rossing have not been affected to any large degree. PDN need to explain in more detail why LHM has been comparatively so devastated and what they are doing to recover.
They also need to clarify the risks around contract commitments, force majeure, spot purchases, in greater detail than they were able to do in the telephone conference call 26 March 2025.
FT
PDN Price at posting:
$4.37 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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