To clarify I'm confident they can reach 40. I'm just questioning...

To clarify I'm confident they can reach 40. I'm just questioning if it will be as easy to keep it at 40 for 6 years as they think. The field is declining fairly steadily, without new drilling it would be around 10-15 TJ/d by 2030 IMO. So to add potentially 30 TJ new production by 2030, with any new wells you drill also declining, is quite a bit of capex. If the wells don't perform to expectations you'll struggle to deliver the contracted volume at the back end of the GSA.

I do think given the gas outlook with the NGP looking like spending a long time not operating it is worth the risk. They are earning something like $8 now which is a massive increase over the $6ish when you look at operating cashflow, and even moreso when you don't have to pay the ridiculous tolls on the NGP on top of your opex.