Good outline of the knowns, thanks for sharing. It aligns, I imagine, with the reason why most everyone reading these threads who does their homework is still here. But it's the unknowns that bother me. I have a niggling suspicion - unfounded at this point, of course - that the application for a ruling opened a can of worms with ATO. Hence, perhaps:
- the departure of the CFO, the departure of the chairman of the company, the departure of the audit committee chair, and the departure of the CEO (all four of whom would've been critical parts of both the decision to make the capital return, and the prior year signoffs on financials and tax affairs);
- the inordinate delay on the return itself, with multiple timeline extensions and still no clear end really in sight;
- the absence of any explanations, discussion of alternatives, or reassurances that fallback plans are in place;
- the subsequent number of tax advisers the company seems to have been through during this long drawn out ruling application saga;
- radio silence on almost everything else in general.
The Co has NOT of course disclosed any issues at all, yet can't seem to communicate effectively why this is occurring. Thus, I still can't help but wonder if an ATO tax audit is underway/ongoing or some other tax snag is holding things up, with the dreaded potential to unravel the books. If we had to restate financials or account for prior year tax shortfalls, for example, it would be a valuation nightmare, and we'd have no individual still on the payroll who was accountable or responsible for any of it.
As we've all discussed before, a capital return announced and approved in Oct 2023 for a pipsqueak like this should not be a convoluted process that is still unresolved with the tax officials. No shade on Phil either, but let's be honest, he's a commercial manager who was originally hired to look after operating assets and land, not to navigate corporate tax, treasury, governance and financial matters.
Add to this the odd day trading that is taking place here (and by who?) involving midpoint trades, attempts to fishhook bids by filling just one or two shares here and there, and what looks like similar sized overall blocks going back & forth in smaller lots (when the course of sales data is examined closely over a week+). And the fact that the sub holder Molton, from its lack of filings, appears not to have bought or sold a single share in Otto over many years.
For me, there are more questions than answers at this point. I am convinced there is something in the equation we do not know yet. This is perhaps why the Substack writer, and those he references, seem similarly baffled at why this stock price appears to be extremely undervalued at these levels. Something smells fishy to me.
(20min delay)