Excellent post by @Dr_Manhatten in another forum - basically...

Excellent post by @Dr_Manhatten in another forum - basically replying to a poster stating that China seems to be avoiding decreasing smelter output of copper , possibly seeking to stockpile the metal. ( for if more troubled times ahead sometime ++ tariff issues now / trade war disruptions to prices and copper price including etc)

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a1m-general-comments.7187371/page-758
“ While it could have been (and probably was) centrally planned initially, it does seem like the Chinese government is trying to rein it in now.

I saw this with the lithium supply chain where cell production is now in overcapacity with massive expansion during the price spike a couple of years back (and also now with EV production).
With lithium however, as is the playbook of the Chinese, they try to ensure they had sufficient cheap raw materials to fuel this production chain.
The idea is that big integrated producers take low profits or even a loss at the raw material side and more than make up for it higher up the chain with cells and products like EVs (makes sense as just about everything is made in China, so keep commodities cheap being the mantra).
Here China went hard in expanding spodumene operations in Africa and elsewhere and as a result, lithium prices are in the gutter while China dethrones Western auto.

***For copper however- they lack the raw suppliers, especially domestically but even abroad and this situation isn't going to fix up soon.
So the orders from the Chinese government now is this,

'China tightens rules on new copper smelters to curb overcapacity

China has tightened requirements for building new copper smelters, in its latest attempt to curb relentless capacity expansion in the world’s top producer of the refined metal.

Companies building new copper smeltersshould control enough mine supply — via outright ownership or equity stakes — to feed the plants, according to a 2025-2027 development plan for the country’s copper industry jointly issued by 11 ministries. This condition would likely be met by only a small number of major Chinese companies.' [source]


Positive for copper miners ** , not so much for smelters. “