So according to the below announcement link (Announcement 27 June 2022), the NPV of the Kola project can range between US$1.623 billion to US$9.354billion dollars (depending on the price of potash). At the time of the below announcement, potash prices were above US$1000/t and the US$9.354billion dollar NPV would have been applicable. Construction costs for Kola project are reported to be US$1.83 billion.
So, construction = US$1.83 billion, and NPV can be as high as = US$9.354billion dollars (depending on the price of potash).
Announcement (27 June 2022) : https://korepotash1.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Kola-Project-optimisation-study-outcomes.pdf
Also, when considering potash prices, an analysis of the Russia/Ukraine war should probably be made. According to my understanding, before the war and out of the top 4 countries producing potash, approximately 50% of potash was being supplied by Russia and Belarus (as per below table). My understanding is that Russia and Belarus are now under sanctions and are no longer able to sell their potash into the market. So effectively, in the last 12 months, 50% of that potash supply has been taken off the market. That's a BIG shortfall on the supply side. Meanwhile, my understanding is that potash demand has been increasing and will continue to do so for a long time to come.
DYOR and make of that what you will.
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