I for one don't see what the confusion is? The graph below is gold overlaid US10Y, barring some spikes the general trends are very evident. When stocks are low vol stable and rising, gold and US rates decouple. This is evident coming into the GFC up to 2007, the tech rally from 2013 through to taper tantrum / repo-gate / covid 2020 and also 2021 to now. The other periods in green where there's turbulence / uncertainty / feb policy action ie. tarp, zirp, nirp, QE, twist, currency lines then rates recouple with gold as they move together (gold up, rates down). Fact of the matter is this is inherently structural and will occur again the next time there's a liquidity constraint which is why rates will again catch up to gold (down) and why the Feb paused hiking rates i.e nothing to do with inflation and everything to do with mark to market losses in commercial real estate (credit destruction). Nothing kills inflation faster than a collateral shortage. Gold moved when it moved because it was front running BTFP expiring, subsequent liquidity stress, rising vol and a falling stock market. We now have the first 2 ducks lined up, just waiting for the next shoe to drop.
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