If ORG shuts Eraring I don't see how they could get...

If ORG shuts Eraring I don't see how they could get involved in a price war without excess generation to back up retail sales.

The entire market is going to pot. Now there's a price cap due to volatility. Isn't that is why VOLL is set so high, it's to attract more generators or encourage retailers to reduce demand. Why introduce a price cap when the market is beginning to do what it was designed for. Designed to put clunky coal fired generators out of business and attract the flexible dispatchers. No one is keen to enter this market as there is no profit to be made with new builds. Even the banks and investment companies that are spruiking green credentials will not fund new builds. A price cap just introduces more investment risk.

I think AGL is well positioned to benefit from this transition to zero carbon because of its reliable coal generators that are required to keep the lights on and avoid blackouts whilst the transition is achieved over the next decade. But generation prices need to increase somehow or other to attract investment. I can't see a price war erupting at end user customer end. Alinta Energy has stated they are focusing on brand rather than pricing.