5500MW battery??? what you smoking?
lets not get started again on your issues with calling numbers from the hip which are not factual.. sounds like two years ago all over again.. 36 is a LOT closer to 38... as a matter of fact, AGL documents are pretty clear with the a capacity factor of 37% listed as expected in 2016, well before commissioning date in 2021.
You have mentioned 8% below design... yet said 38% (which was really 37) was its sold CF... then said April was only 32% CF... that isnt 8% (its 6% - when it should really be 5%)
As for why April is below annual average capacity factor - you said it yourself... seasonal variation - winter is less windy than other months. Clearly April is not normal - I have been a holder of IFN before GNX and its wind farms also had periods of higher and lower production... you don't need me to explain how averages work do you? Clearly, to have a annual CF of 35-36% (or even 37% as intended)... it would require months having a much higher rate of production to offset months of lower production
Windlab doing the resource monitoring for Kidston??? Nope
As for Windlab challenging the numbers AEMO are using... I would not doubt it... have you looked at the assumptions CSIRO are using? They are higher than Windlabs.
I think reality is that AEMO are making assumptions on effective CF which would also include network constraint issues (MLF and curtailment), not necessarily just a lack of resource
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2023/05/renewable-curtailment-forced-and-not-quite-so-forced/https://www.pwc.com.au/deals/assets/renewables-market-update-2022.pdf
(20min delay)