If I knew then I wouldn't be called dumb money....
When I thought Met coal was heading towards $300/t then I thought north of 50c and with the anticipated feeding frenzy that a massive rerate would bring I was confident it would well over shoot fair value. I was interested in taking on bigger risks at that time. Now with the whole sector looking bearish I don't know. I certainly think there will be some sellers. To be clear if I could buy more at 4.1c then I would buy more. Obviously it will rerate by multiples. How many I'm just not smart enough to know.
When Taurus funded this project they were on the record saying they were strongly bullish on the coal sector. I would be interested to know if they remain bullish given the hammering it has gotten recently. This is not just an academic interest. I want to know if they plan on taking some profit and selling down their enormous position. This would have obvious consequences.
I guess taking a simplistic approach, if I thought 50c around $300/t then 20-25c around $120-150/t seems right. What I don't know is if negative sentiment on the sector will push it lower.
The idea they may buy other mines is an appealing narrative but I'm not sure I would view that as a smart move until the bottom of the cycle is in sight (presuming this is a real downturn and not just a bump).
As I said, I have no idea. Learning as I go. I feel especially unconfident about determining a company's value. I would love to hear from others regarding their thoughts and would really like some explanation to accompany any price estimates.
We don't need luck. We just need to relist.
RRP Price at posting:
4.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
