With respect to both @whitto and @Bright30 those comments have little baring on the coking coal market.
The above quote was from an overnight article on the state of the coking coal market in general. It was not country specific. However, obviously whatever happens in the biggest coking coal market will effect the price overall. The slow down in Chinese demand combined with cyclical expansion in supply as happens when small companies like RRP race into the market is currently putting downward pressure on coking coal prices. This was already happening some months ago. Buyers were delaying price negotiation due to oversupply which they saw as an opportunity to negotiate price down. The cyclone derailed that and it looked like prices would spike again (this corresponded to my off-market acquisition interest). It seems buyers where able to wait out the hiatus or the fact that much of the coal was at port already mitigated this supply interruption.
To be clear I still see great upside from the current SP but I suspect, that in the absence of a further significant expansion of operational capacity (acquisition), the share price would have topped some months ago presuming that the prevailing analyst's opinion is correct and PCI prices will decline.
"Before the latest disruption, Japan's steel mills had been discussing a price for the current quarter of around $150 a tonne.
A source who deals with procurement at a Japanese steel mill said he was wary of a fast settlement, as both sides will need to agree on the outlook for Chinese steel market, the world's largest." Reuters 2 days ago.
"A survey of economist and investment bank analysts by FocusEconomics show prices are expected to decline substantially later this year. The median forecast is for met coal to average $146 per tonne in Q4 2017 and $130 during the final quarter next year. Coking coal averaged $121 a tonne in 2016." Mining.com 2 days ago.
So to reiterate: China is the driver of our market irrespective of who we actually sell to. Numbers out of China are concerning for more than just a slow down. This suspension is certainly costing share holders........although many of us would have probably sold prior to the top.
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