1/ Comparison with maiden resource - Indicated + Inferred Resource (Old maiden resource) seems more or less comparable with only Indicated as per updated resource today. Rupice resource as per maiden JORC -Total (Indicated + Inferred) – 9.4 MT @ 5.1 % Zn, 3.3%Pb, 183 g/t Ag, 1.8 g/t Au, 0.6% Cu, 31%BaSO4
Rupice today’s updated resource – indicated only – 9.5 MT @ 4.9% Zn, 3.1% Pb, 176 g/t Ag, 1.6 g/t Au, 0.5% Cu, 29% BaSO4
Contained metal as per maiden JORC Total (Indicated + Inferred) – 480 Kt Zn, 310 Kt Pb, 530 Koz Au, 55 Moz Ag, 52 Kt Cu, 2920 Kt BaSO4,
Contained metal as per updated Rupice resource – indicated only – 466 Kt Zn, 294 Kt Pb, 500 Koz Au, 54 Moz Ag, 52 Kt Cu, 22 Kt Sb, 2732 Kt BaSO4
2/ "Indicated" for PFS - Inferred resource would have less significance in PFS in any case
https://www.goldminerpulse.com/blogs/what-is-a-scoping-study.phpHence probably better to compare “indicated” as done above, which is quite comparable to old maiden resource.
3/
Higher expectations - Some people perhaps expected a much higher resource, and from that angle it is disappointing (for them), considering that
indicated is actually less (although slightly less) than total (indicated+ inferred) of maiden resource. Although with “indicated” being comparable to old resource (Indicated+inferred), we at least have a greater degree of certainty
Also refer
@Snorth89 and
@ozbucheron comments on cutoff grade
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...rce-estimate.5597051/page-41?post_id=47002414https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...rce-estimate.5597051/page-38?post_id=469988074/
Still much below NPV- Even taking old Scoping study NPV, the figure was
well more than 1 billion AUD. So we are still much below that with current market cap.
Even if the PFS NPV is comparable to scoping study, it means that our current market cap is signifantly lower than NPV. Also even if PFS NPV ends up same as that of scoping study, we would have that with a much higher level of certainty as it is PFS stage.
Also, there is other stuff not even priced in like Tethyan assets, bigger concession application, other regional exploration etc.
5/
Drill results being presented with resource IMO should not make a major difference. What would one have done if drill results were presented earlier? Would you sell earlier at $1 or previous all time high of $1.9? Well,
anyone disappointed today still had the opportunity to sell today. Today’s low was in fact higher than the all time highs of last few months. 6/ Retracements- Share price does not go up in a straight line and some pull back was always natural. I think March low was some 78c while high was $2.86
23.6% retracement – 2.37
38.2% retracement – 2.0750% retracement – 1.82
61.8% retracement - 1.58
Pullbacks of rallies are inevitable, and today we saw some support at the 38.2% retracement of entire rally from March low.
Maybe it can find support here or maybe not, in which case, next level of support might come into play. That is not just based on today’s resource but the market doing what it always does. IMO each shareholder must decide what their next move and risk appetite should be.
7/
Buy the rumour and sell the fact is an well know trading strategy. Also
JORC, updated resource, scoping study, feasibility study etc can act as temporary tops as people sell the news. It sometimes works and sometimes doesn't.
It is difficult to determine ADT’s mining life stage and what news will be sold because ADT is juggling multiple balls including Tethyan, new concession application etc which can very well put us back in exciting discovery stage.
PFS due could again be a major top and once again shareholders have to decide the extent of their risk appetite and their time frame.
8/
Recent share price rally was very sharp.
RSI, Bollinger band etc were looking stretched in any case. Some pullback always appeared likely, even if going up more, in any case as share price takes a breather
9/ Recently in
traders could have also sold today . Also on a day when overall market was weak with
XJO fall by around 2%10/ As can be seen, there are
plenty of potential reasons for a short term fall. It is not as simplistic as saying that drilling results provided earlier would have made a difference.
As I mentioned earlie, “sell the fact” is real, and something like this could happen again on PFS release (after a good rise hopefully)
For some time, I’ve thought of ADT as a giant dart board where you hope that some darts stick and some don’t. Plenty more darts left and still hoping some stick. From point of overall valuation, however, even scoping study NPV is much higher than current market cap.
(20min delay)