AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Ann: Updated Mineral Resource Estimate, page-79

  1. 9,103 Posts.
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    Bombers, Personally, I never expected much of a revision in the MRE from a 'wedge' program. The program was simply aimed at moving 'Inferred' resources in the pit to either the Measured or Indicated category. Granted it looks like they revised the "measured' estimate downwards slightly, but not really a big deal. i personally think SHs may have had an undue expectation around the MRE revision itself, not helped by the fact it took too long IMO to reissue for a few drills btw. I have also been on record here saying that I think mining won't happen here to 2024 btw as well, from some time back, and also stated if AVZ wanted to get to mining by 1st half 2023 (their timeline) that they would need FID/funding done and dusted soon, with construction commencing around September 2021. If anything IMO the current SP is probably based on a market expectation that mining will not happen in 2023 IMO, so up to AVZ to prove otherwise. Setting aggressive timelines has IMO always been an issue with AVZ. certainly, IMO and through my previous posts I see a market entry opportunity for AVZ this side of 2025 when discussing what a growth rate to 3TWh by 2030 means for greenfields hopefuls. AVZ must take up that opportunity, as opportunities can disappear if you don't take your opportunity when your time comes.

    Returning to the revised MRE, the purpose was to improve the DFS. Why - in the DFS the immediate resource in the pit, been the first area mined, was "Inferred' meaning it was waste. Moving that to Indicated means it is mow viewed as mineable, therefore on assumption of no other changes to previous DFS this would act to increase the NPV and IRR, because of 'cost reductions'. I have posted about this aspect previously.

    For others, what will move the SP is FID and funding, noting FID also means or your mine plans have also been approved.

    All IMO
    Last edited by Scarpa: 25/05/21
 
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