Yeah, I haven't read too much into the 1st half conservative estimate from this report. One thing that has always impressed me with management's announcements, is that they have obviously made a conscious decision not to put any strict timeframes on their milestones as any slippage / delays would cause negative market sentiment towards the company. There are a lot of other companies out there, especially in the graphite sector, that pump out these bold statements only to never come close to these timeframes. When dealing with 2 MASSIVE State owned enterprises (bigger than RIO) as your offtake partners there are going to be some delays in due diligence and board approvals etc.
However, when GPX announced that the mining licence approval was 'imminent' and then it happened soon afterwards, and in a recent announcement that they are progressing the negotiations of binding agreements, I take these as a pretty strong indication that things are heading in the right direction and a major deal is just around the corner.
Finally, from my understanding the valuation in this latest report of $1.17 doesn't appear to factor in the project financing. I could be wrong but it reads as if the valuation takes into account the initial capex of US$74M to set up the mine, where as from all reports GPX are negotiating the complete package of offtake and project finance. So when this all happens, IMO I expect the value to be a lot higher, especially when the resource upgrade gets announced shortly.
Cheers
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