"I'd say that JK's defense is unlikely to be "I hit the targets...

"I'd say that JK's defense is unlikely to be "I hit the targets - i complied with the terms". It's more likely to be "I thought that these contracts might generate future business for us. They didn't, but I was trying to grow the business". If he can argue that successfully, then he'll keep the shares."

That exactly is the argument. I'm not sure why you still believe the contracts did not bring in future business though, because at least 2 of them did. There are also arguments that support the view that he was trying his best to grow the business.