1AE 0.00% 6.0¢ aurora energy metals limited

Ann: Uranium Resource Up 34% to 50.6Mlb, Maiden Measured Resource, page-4

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    hi bran
    the latest from Euroz, they are all over it & are being very conservative on the target pricesmile.png

    Aurora Energy Metals Limited

    Price (AUD)

    -

    Target (AUD)

    -

    Rating




    0.23

    0.55

    Speculative Buy




    Maiden Resource Update

    Valuation Update

    Event

    1AE has released a maiden resource update for the Aurora Energy Metals Project (AEMP) incorporating 32 historical diamond holes drilled in 2011.

    Impact

    Meaningful resource uplift. The maiden AEMP resource update has provided a +34% uplift in resources on a contained U3O8 basis to 50.6mlb @ 214ppm eU3O8. The previously defined high grade zone of the Aurora uranium resource has encouragingly increased by +7% on a contained U3O8 basis in tandem with a +9% uplift in grade to 19.2mlb @ 485ppm eU3O8, of which 91% is classified in the high confidence Measured category. While much of the uplift in the overall resource is largely attributable to the lower grade halo of mineralisation located immediately below the high grade core, 49% of contained metal in the lower grade zone is now classified in the Measured category.

    AEMP exploration program currently underway. The initial Phase 1 RC drilling program commenced in mid-Oct’22 and is targeting both possible extensions of the existing uranium resource and lithium mineralisation in the shallow lakebed sediments overlying the uranium resource. The Phase 1 program is the first drill program at the AEMP in more than a decade and comprises 17 RC holes for ~3,400m. An additional diamond rig was recently mobilised to site, with drilling currently testing potential extensions to the north-west of the Aurora uranium deposit.

    Alta Mesa transaction provides attractive value look-through. Domestic US uranium developer enCore Energy Corp (TSXV: EU) recently acquired the Texas-based Alta Mesa In-Situ Recovery (ISR) Project from Energy Fuels Inc. (TSX: EFR) for total consideration of US$120m. The Alta Mesa ISR Project hosts a resource of 20mlb U3O8 and a licensed processing facility, which is currently on care and maintenance having produced ~5mlb U3O8 between 2005 and 2013. Noting sunk capital on processing infrastructure at Alta Mesa is undisclosed, attributing half of the consideration paid for Alta Mesa to the in-situ resource implies a transaction multiple of US$3.00/lb, providing a look-through valuation of ~US$150m (~$1.00/sh) for the Aurora uranium deposit.

    Valuation update. We have revised our PT upwards to $0.55/sh (prev. $0.50/sh) on the application of an uncharged target EV/Resource multiple of A$1.80/lb to the updated AEMP resource containing 50.6mlb U3O8. Domestic US peers Peninsula Energy (PEN.ax) and Okapi Resources (OKR.ax) currently trade on EV/Resource multiples of A$3.00/lb and $1.20/lb respectively, while 1AE remains undervalued at a multiple A$0.60/lb. We look to incorporate a DCF valuation of a potential development scenario on advancement of the Aurora uranium deposit to a PFS in CY23. Subsequent to our last published note, we have risk-weighted our valuation by 85% in recognition of potential future dilution.

    Action

    Speculative Buy rating maintained, Price Target increased to $0.55/sh (prev. $0.50/sh). We continue to conservatively ascribe no value to the lithium exploration potential at the AEMP.

    Catalysts

    Assay results from 1AE’s initial uranium and lithium-focused exploration program at the AEMP are expected from Dec’22 ahead of a 1H CY23 PFS release on the uranium deposit. We anticipate US government efforts to restore the front-end of its domestic nuclear fuel supply chain to continue to provide a highly supportive backdrop for 1AE.

 
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