I think that's largely right, but the current shares trade at...

I think that's largely right, but the current shares trade at $0.30 vs $NTA of 0.60 because they rank subordinate to the pref shares.

So the $1m question is what are the shares worth once the dilution occurs.

The 205 for 1 conversion rate applies if the share price remain under c. $0.488c at the time of conversion, so lets assume that 205 is a fixed certainty.

Arguably the shares should trade higher following the conversion because each shareholder is more likely to receive something if URF was liquidated post conversion. URF shareholders LVR would fall from 75% to 50%.

I'd argue the shares should trade up to 0.45c post conversion (assuming no other changes in asset valuation and cashflow neutralises as predicted).
In that instance the original URFPA holder should have $92.25 of value for each URFPA they purchased (currently trading at $62 on market).

Both URFPA and URF stand to make a similar gain (1.5x) from where they are trading today, but I'd argue URFPA has much better downside protection between now and 1/1/23 (assuming they wait all that time before they convert).

Thoughts? DYOR