current prices imply a 27-30% discount on NAV on the entire...

current prices imply a 27-30% discount on NAV on the entire remaining book of properties (after haircutting the JV Urban American investment by 30% and treating all cash/other assets and liabilities at book). this is a greater decline peak to trough than was seen in the GFC, and keep in mind URF hardly marked their book up much during the last couple of years (this may be valid or not, just a statement of what happened). this also accords no value accretion from the buyback - even though they bought close to 4% of the pro forma co in 3Q alone, and will likely acquire at least 15% of the equity over the next year, unless they wind down even faster).

this probably doesnt work well as an investment until the market gets more comfy about a fed pivot (which should allow US resi prices to stabilize). but it seems quite difficult to lose money from current prices, if you have a 1-2yr holding period and can see it through.