Agree, Human are social animal (majority) and premium shopping...

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JPGuru

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09/10/21

17:23

Post #: 56683058
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Originally posted by AndrewOne: ↑

Yes, this is what I was expecting, Xavier not wanting to takeover the company but take up the opportunity to make some money long term.

I got some of these figures from a web site so they may not be completely accurate so do your own calculations. I am not an accountant so it was easier than going through the auditors report.

If the assets are Eur52bil and the debt is Eur29bil that leaves Eur23bil in equity and a Loan to Value ratio of 55.77%. That's Eur164.87 per share or AU$13.04 per CDI @ EURAUD 1.5827.

Paying off Eur1.3bil per year of debt and selling Eur10bil, in 3 years, assets could be Eur42bil, debt Eur15.1bil, equity Eur26.9bil, LVR of 35.9% and AU$15.26 per CDI. If the assets go back to 2019 levels and they sell Eur10bil of assets, assets would be Eur51bil, debt Eur15.1bil, equity Eur35.9bil, LVR 29.6% and AU$20.36 per CDI.

I have read articles about the online shopping advancing 5 years in 12 months due to COVID and that it is the end of retail. I believe that as soon as people are allowed to go back to the shops and they feel safe, they will as we are social animals. People enjoy going to the shops, examining what they want to buy and getting it right there and then. This will cause a drop in current online shopping levels and with many of the online retailers not making any profit so they can grow their market share (essentially buying market share with the losses). If they find themselves in a position where their market share is dropping and their losses are increasing, they will have to put their prices up which will make bricks and mortar shopping more attractive.

URW have stated that they are aware of needing to adapt and offer products and services that you can't get from online shopping. I believe that there is a place for both and that due to COVID we are at an extreme level away from bricks and mortar. Over the next 3 years I believe that things will swing back in URWs favor. There will be challenges for URW and we trust in the URW's management and with Xavier's help that they will do the right thing for shareholders to maximize the value of the business by making smart decisions and not dump assets.

If they make a deal to sell EUR10bil of assets at 2019 levels (and not all the good assets), they could buy back 10% of shares at these low prices. The LVR would be in a good place for rising interest rates and we could see the share price at AU$22 per CDI in three years with a healthy dividend.

I have added some more to my lotto ticket this week and will buy some more next week if prices are good. It's over to you URW to do the right thing, play with different scenario's and choose the most optimized approach at increasing shareholder value in the long term while managing the interest rate risks. Thank you Xavier in advance of your hard work and influence.

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Agree, Human are social animal (majority) and premium shopping malls will retain their space moving forward as more confidence is gained through various Covid treatment that will come out to market particularly Pfizer and NRX drugs (if successful in getting FDA approval).

URW Price at posting: $4.94 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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