Ann: US$10m Strategic Investment Approval Received, page-187

I think the SWF coming on board with a significant investment (US$10mill) and at 8c, which is a 25% premium to the last traded price at the time, is a good sign that both the Angolan bank loan and the Carrihno offtake will follow shortly. I expect that the SWF would have been talking to both the bank and Carrihno as part of their due diligence. It's hard to imagine that not being the case in Angola.
The company had wanted to begin construction by the end of July under a stage 1 scenario, so it's worth thinking about how production for next year might be impacted by a later start. For all we know, the offtake and bank loan might be received next week but I will allow for later to see how that works out.
I'm going to assume the agreements are all finalised in the the next four weeks, facilitated by Lindsay's presence in Angola, the contractor is then given their notice and they are ready to begin two weeks later. Of course the contractor could be given more notice as contracts are being finalised but allowing for the two weeks notice, that would mean an end of September start. Eight months of construction and one month of commissioning would see commissioning fished at the end of June. That allows for six months of production to the end of 2025.
The stage 1 plant capacity is around 187,000tpa, so in six months they could produce up to around 93,000tpa. That depends on how the plant performs relative to nameplate. It might more conservatively be 80,000t, or it might produce above nameplate.
However, all recent communication from the company has been that they are likely to go straight to stage two at double the plant capacity. If they do that, then in six months they could produce more like 160,000 - 186,000 tonnes in six months. Latest guidance was 153,000 tonnes for year 1 and 163,000 tonnes in year 2.
153,000 tonnes would be achievable in just 5 months of production at nameplate capacity if the company moves straight to stage 2 as they appear to be planning on. Nameplate capacity for stage 2 is 374,000t or 156,000t over 5 months. That would allow for a further 1 month delay on what I allowed for above and still potentially reach the first year's target. I.e. there is some fat there if they start construction at the end of next month.
If the offtake and Angolan bank sign off next week rather than in around 4 weeks or 8 weeks, then all the better but it isn't critical if going to stage 2.
Talk on HC of missing a full year is certainly premature and seems very unlikely to me at this stage, now that the SWF has agreed come in.